The US election is just over three months away, and although a lot could happen between now and then, the Democrats will likely keep their majority in the House, could get a majority in the Senate, and win the Presidency. Would the US space program be radically changed? Would NASA’s plans for the Moon change? These are some of the questions we’ll try to answer.
US space program priorities
For the moment let’s just say that the Democrats retain a majority in the House of Representatives and the Republicans hold on to a slim majority in the Senate. And of course for this article, we’re talking about a Democratic President.
I don’t anticipate a radical change in the space program.
It’s important to remember that there are many agencies that contribute to the US space program including NASA, the Department of Defense (DOD), the Department of Commerce which includes the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), the National Science Foundation (NSF), the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and others.
In Congress, there has been steady bi-partisan funding support for the space program, though there certainly is a difference of opinion in the direction of some programs.
2020 Democratic party platform
Recently the Democratic National Convention posted a draft of the Party platform. It’s been widely circulated including on NASA Watch which elicited quite a few comments.
There is however only one paragraph devoted the space program, on page 18 of the 80 page document. The context is that of “Investing in the Engines of Job Creation.”
“Democrats continue to support the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and are committed to continuing space exploration and discovery. We believe in continuing the spirit of discovery that has animated NASA’s human space exploration, in addition to its scientific and medical research, technological innovation, and educational mission that allows us to better understand our own planet and place in the universe. We will strengthen support for the United States’ role in space through our continued presence on the International Space Station, working in partnership with the international community to continue scientific and medical innovation. We support NASA’s work to return Americans to the moon and go beyond to Mars, taking the next step in exploring our solar system. Democrats additionally support strengthening NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Earth observation missions to better understand how climate change is impacting our home planet.”
The language is typical election and party speak, and there’s not much to read into this other than a coupe of points. First, Democrats will continue partnerships with the international space community. That comes as no surprise. Secondly, the reference to NOAA is important. NOAA has been one of the agencies the Trump administration has targeted for deep budget cuts with a proposed 13.5% decrease in 2021. And who could forget SharpieGate. The Democrats won’t let NOAA budget cuts go ahead.
NASA
Under a Democratic President, NASA’s budget will likely not increase much, if at all, and depending on the US economy and the pandemic, could be reduced. The current White House administration, with support from Senate Republicans, have been looking at increasing NASA’s budget by 12% next year to help defray some of the costs associated with its flagship Artemis program.
Currently, the House Appropriations Committee has put forward a budget that would see FY2021 funding kept at FY2020 levels, negating the White House proposed 12% increase. However, eight bi-partisan representatives from the Defense, Commerce-Justice-Science committee want to add $2.6 billion to NASA’s exploration budget. This week the House take up a FY2021 appropriations bill. We should have a better idea by the end of the week where NASA’s budget is headed for FY2021.
Regardless of what gets decided for FY2021, NASA’s Artemis program would take a short term hit under the Democrats, in that the goal of landing US astronauts on the Moon by 2024 would be delayed. Instead, the timeline would likely shift back to a 2028 date.
As well, the Artemis program may lose funding, which could be redirected to science programs gutted by the Trump administration.
Transition team and the fate of Jim Bridenstine
SpaceQ sources tell us with the November election coming up fast, those interested in being on the Democratic Party NASA transition team are already jockeying for positions.
Of note, this past weekend saw former NASA Administrator Sean O’Keefe, a republican, not only endorse Joe Biden, but also Biden’s vision for the space program. The op-ed was co-written with former astronaut John Grunsfeld who also served as NASA’s Chief Scientist in the Bush Administration and NASA Associate Administrator for Science in the Obama-Biden Administration. While we don’t envisage O’Keefe being on the transition team, there could be a place Grunsfeld on the team or at NASA after the election.
And unlike the Trump transition team which took months to get the NASA transition underway, you can bet that the Democratic NASA transition team will be up and running shortly after the election.
Which brings us to NASA’s current administrator Jim Bridenstine. Rumours are circulating that if the Democrats win the Presidency, he won’t stay on.