The Prime Minister Will Step Aside and an Election is Coming, What Does that Mean for the Space Sector?

With Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announcing he will step aside as leader of the Liberal party after a successor has been chosen and an election coming, what does this mean for the space sector? After cabinet minister Chrystia Freeland resigned on December 16 it seemed what was inevitable would come to pass sooner rather than later and that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau would resign as leader of the Liberal party. Yesterday, he did just that setting into motion a race to find a leader that the party hopes will be palatable to the public to ward off what the polls and pundits suggest, a Conservative government coming into power. That the Conservatives will win is not a done deal. The electorate will have their say. The Liberals could elect a leader that might resonate with the public and field a slate of candidates including some potential new leaders for cabinet, deliver an updated platform with an economic narrative that's far different than what their messaging has been for the last few years, and just maybe they squeak in. For that to happen, and I admit that seems unlikely at this time, they'll need to be at the top of their game and with a charismatic new leader with little baggage. Could that leader be Mark Carney? The current program Rather than gazing into a crystal ball which will get us nowhere, let's instead look at the state of Canada's space program. The Canadian Space Agency (CSA) baseline budget hasn't been growing, something former Liberal cabinet minister and former CSA President Marc Garneau expressed at last falls 2024 SpaceBound conference. To note, it was the Stephen Harper Conservative government who lowered the CSA's base funding and the Liberals never restored it. The CSA's planned spending for the upcoming government fiscal year is currently expected to be lower and job cuts are expected. If anything, a Conservative government might look to trim more civil servants going forward. While the CSA's base funding is an issue, the government did announce support for specific programs, most notably the NASA led Artemis program. In 2019 Canada announced a $2.05 billion commitment over 24 years towards its own moon program tied in part to the U.S. initiative. While Artemis is delayed, Canada's agreement with the U.S. means that this commitment will go forward. Canada will continue to work towards supplying the Lunar Gateway with a next-generation Canadarm, Jeremy Hansen will go to the moon and Canada will send at least one rover to the lunar surface. Other lunar related initiatives will go forward for now. The Conservatives, should they form a new government, will review everything but are unlikely to make any immediate changes, nor pull Canada's out of its commitment to the U.S. The new Trump administration will continue with the Artemis program, though there may be some changes. SpaceNews is holding a webinar next to discuss the space sector under Trump 2.0. Space defence opportunities? Where we might see some change is in the Canadian defence sector. Canada's commitment to NATO was under fire even before Trump was elected for the second time. That will only continue. The Conservatives for their part, have been talking up increasing defence spending. The last time the Conservatives were in power Canada didn't have a Canadian space division, one in which more funding should be coming and which could lead to more opportunities for the commercial sector. Recently the House of Commons Standing Committee on National Defence held meetings to discuss Canada's Space Defence. Testimony put forward said Canada needs to bolster Space Defence to meet needs and threats. Telesat in anticipation of getting its Lightspeed satellite constellation launched and looking for U.S. defence contracts, announced yesterday the hiring of a Charles Cynamon, a U.S. Air Force veteran as President of Telesat Government Solutions, its U.S. wholly-owned subsidiary. While defense spending might increase as related to the space sector, recent history shows that whichever party was in power, defence spending never reached the levels expected. Could this time around be different? Earth observation Earth observation (EO) and its potential is a wild card going forward. In 2022 the CSA released Canada's Strategy for Satellite Earth Observation. It followed this up with some announcements including in 2023 a $200 million investment in EO instruments. The strategy fell short in one area, it didn't include any new Canadian built EO satellites. Prior to the strategy being announced the CSA did announce the WildFireSat program, but other Canadian built EO satellites, including replacing the aging SciSat don't exist. There's an opportunity going forward for a government to address this which would support the commercial sector. Change for opportunities? The upcoming change in leadership in the Liberal party and an election as early as this spring could lead to new opportunities for the space sector. Stay tuned.