The Canadian spaceport launch vehicle year end rankings

As 2020 comes to an end and we publish our 3rd edition of the Canadian Spaceport Launch Vehicle Power Rankings, we ask ourselves is the glass half empty or half full? That perception is up to you. Event though it’s been a very difficult year with the COVID-19 pandemic sweeping across the globe, there are signs for optimism.

It’s also a time for the government to step up and support a Canadian spaceport. Standing on the sidelines won’t do anymore, the government needs to keep moving forward with implementing its space strategy, and that includes supporting a Canadian spaceport. We discuss how this can be achieved in a cost-effective way.

What spaceport?

Canada does not have a spaceport. So why bother creating a Canadian Spaceport Launch Vehicle Power Rankings? The answer in part is that Canada needs a spaceport. So the next question is what launch companies would use a Canadian spaceport? The rankings answer that question, but … I’m getting ahead of myself though. I still need to answer why Canada needs a spaceport.

The simple answer is that it is in Canada’s strategic national interest to have its own spaceport. Canada relies 100% on having other nations launch our civil, commercial and defence payloads, including satellites, to space. Up until now that might have been acceptable, but no longer.

While our ally and neighbour the United States can be relied upon to launch most Canadian payloads, we must adhere to their rules, sometimes their wishes, and occasionally their whims.

A clear example of the US creating problems for Canada was the launch of the RADARSAT-2 satellite. US intelligence was very concerned that the government of Canada had commissioned a radar satellite that would be privately owned by MDA. It didn’t matter that an agreement between the government of Canada and MDA precluded MDA selling data deemed sensitive. So a deal to share data with NASA in return for a launch was scuttled. This delayed the project, added costs and was a lesson that Canada should not forget.

Take that example and now add in the political situation in the US during the Trump administration. In modern times, if not in the entirety of the history of the United States, there has not been such a polarizing President as Trump. Trump was, and still is, dangerous to democracy with his constant lying, denial of facts, and whimsical acts. To Canada, his time in office has been of great concern. The ramifications of his time in office won’t fully be known for years to come. It is yet another reason why Canada should move forward with a spaceport of its own.

To borrow a well worn phrase, space is congested, contested, and competitive. The only way to guarantee Canadian payloads are launched on time without interference from other nations is to have our own launch facility and eventually a made in Canada launch vehicle.

Canada can adhere to its space strategy in a cost-effective way by incrementally supporting the efforts of Canadian companies looking to build launch vehicles and at least one spaceport. Government support for launch vehicle technology is already happening through the Canadian Space Agency Space Technology Development Program. Montreal based Reaction Dynamics is working on a new “green” fuel and hybrid rocket engine. Toronto based C6 Launch Services is also getting some funding for technology related to launch vehicles.

But before Reaction Dynamics, C6 and or any other Canadian company is ready to launch, they need somewhere to launch from. The best option is still the Nova Scotia spaceport project that Maritime Launch Systems (MLS) is proposing. It’s a credible effort but lacks the necessary funding to take it to the next stage. They’ve done some heavy lifting to date, but it’s time the government pitched in. The obvious vehicle is the Strategic Innovation Fund. MLS would have to meet the criteria, including more funding of its own, or matching investments from elsewhere, both of which it can likely do. And as you’ll read below, MLS has modified its business plan to take into account the potential use of their proposed spaceport by other launch vehicle providers.

The Canadian spaceport launch vehicle power rankings

To make this fun, we’re using a sports analogy, power rankings. The rankings are updated as needed as new information is available. Naturally the power rankings will see launch vehicles move up, down and sometimes drop out altogether. Feel free to comment on the rankings, and if you want to send us your input privately, email us spaceport at spaceq.ca.

The rankings will focus primarily on Canadian and US launch companies at this time as they are the most likely to use the spaceport.

One thing to remember, the MLS spaceport as currently designed, is intended for small and medium launch vehicles. At some point large launch vehicles could be added.

I’ll also add there are over 1,000 students in Canada working towards launch vehicle design in some capacity through the Launch Canada Challenge. Now is the time to harness that creativity and innovation. We can’t waste this effort by training students who will then leave Canada because our government hasn’t done enough to support a burgeoning industry.

An update on MLS

The pandemic, among other factors, has delayed the next phase of MLS’s efforts to build a spaceport in Nova Scotia. The company however has not been idle in 2020. Here are some highlights:

• Added Sasha Jacob, Founder and CEO of Jacob Capital Management Inc as a Director.
• Signed a Letter of Intent with another launch vehicle operator in June. That’s now seven signed LOI’s worth $1.2 billion. The company states another $1.1 billion in LOI’s are in discussions.
• They have also stated they are negotiating two separate multi-launch term sheets valued at $350 million.
• In June the final Cyclone 4M upper stage was successfully tested.
• In June received letter of offer for land lease from the Nova Scotia government.
• In September road design completed and initiated spaceport land survey.
• In December announced discussions underway with FireFly and Spinlaunch for use of the spaceport. FireFly could be a potential first customer with a separate launch vehicle launch pad created and ready for use in Q4 2021.

The rankings

Note: Northrop Grumman’s OmegA has dropped out of the rankings as the company lost its Air Force bid. This project is in limbo.

10 – Phantom Daytona-E, Phantom Space (USA) (new)

Jim Cantrell is kicking the launch can again with his new company Phantom Space. After successfully raising US$100 million by 2019, Vector Launch had their major sponsor pull-out later that year. Cantrell resigned, and the company eventually shut down. Now Cantrell is back with a different business plan that includes using Hadley engines from Ursa Major Technologies. That’s the same engine supplier C6 Launch Systems is using. Cantrell has stated in the past his desire to launch from Canada.

9 – Rocket 1, Launcher Space (down 1)

Launcher Space is a New York based startup using 3D printed engines. They’re a ways off from launching, but look promising.

8 – Electron, Rocket Lab (USA/New Zealand) (up 1)

Rocket Lab had a launch failure in July but had come back strong and has now take a crucial step towards reusability.

They currently launch out of Launch Complex 1, Mahia, New Zealand, and will soon be launching from Launch Complex 2 on Wallops Island, Virginia. It’s unclear whether the company would consider launching from Canada but the fact remains they will be a force to be reckoned with going forward so there’s always the possibility.

7 – C6 Rocket, C6 Launch (Canada)

Since our last update on the company in July, the company announced it had signed an agreement to use Spaceport America.

While the company is not planning on launching from Canada at this time, circumstances could see that change.

6 – Terran 1, Relativity Space (USA)

Relativity Space is fascinating company. Their 3D printing and AI technology could have much wider applications than many had previously thought. In June we interviewed co-founder Jordan Noone.

In November the company announced it had raised US$500 million.

They’ve signed Telesat as a customer. It’s not inconceivable that they might one day consider launching from Canada.

5 – Reaction Dynamics (Canada) (down 2)

Reaction Dynamics is down two spots, but not because of any negative news. The company had some good news which we wrote about in this article in November: Reaction Dynamics rocket engine attracts investment while meeting major milestone.

They are patiently developing a new hybrid rocket engine. I still believe they could be the first company to build a Canadian orbital rocket.

4 – Astra Space (USA) (down 1)

Earlier this month Astra launched and almost reached orbit. The company is clearly on the right path and we expect in 2021 they will reach orbit.

I know there is interest on MLS’s part to see them use the Nova Scotia spaceport.

3 – SpinLaunch (USA) (up 2)

SpinLaunch is very quiet with respect to their business. They have reportedly raised US$80 million in funding. More importantly for these rankings, we’ve been made aware that they are in discussions with MLS to use the spaceport.

SpinLaunch is like no other launch company that we’re aware of. They’ve developed an unusual kinetic launch system that does not rely on chemical rockets. Quoting Wikipedia, “the technology uses a centrifuge to store energy and will then rapidly transfer that energy into a catapult to send a payload to space at up to 4,800 kilometres per hour (3,000 mph).”

2 – Alpha and Beta, Firefly Aerospace (USA)

FireFly is gearing up for its first launch, quite possibly in January. The company will be launching from the Vandenberg Air Force Base Space Launch Complex 2-West.

MLS has stated they are in talks with FireFly. Should those talks progress to a launch contract, they could become the first company to launch from Nova Scotia in late 2021. They would not be using the Cyclone 4M launch pad, but rather a new modular small launch pad, designed in-part for mobile launch systems.

1 – Cyclone 4M, Yuzhnoye Design Office (Ukraine)

Yuzhnoye still remains at the top of the rankings for the simple reason that they are key to MLS successfully implementing a profitable business. We’ve also heard that the Ukraine government may step up its efforts to get this project moving forward.

Here’s the short background on why Yuzhnoye is still number 1 in the rankings. Yuzhnoye funded the study that led to the Canso area location in Nova Scotia being selected for a spaceport. Steve Matier was the writer of that study. He decided after writing the study that he wanted the challenge of making the Nova Scotia spaceport a reality. So he convinced Yuzhnoye to be the customer, and he would, with his partners, build the spaceport under a new company, Maritime Launch Services.