For 21 years humans have lived and worked continuously in space on the International Space Station (ISS). It’s likely that by the end of this decade the ISS will be decommissioned. So where will Canadian astronauts live and work next in space?
The ISS today and the lunar Artemis program
Canada and other ISS partners are committed to running the space station through 2024 and this past New Year’s eve the U.S. extended their commitment to 2030. With the U.S. onboard, negotiations will begin in earnest this year to extend the ISS through to 2030. It won’t be easy with tensions running high with Russia on the political front. However, with NASA signalling its willingness to keep paying the majority of the bills, it’s likely a deal will be reached.
By 2030 though, the ISS will be 32 years old and will have exceeded its design lifespan by 17 years. It is unlikely that the station will be extended further. That means that long-term planning on what happens next has already started, and Canada needs a plan of its own.
Currently no Canadian astronaut is scheduled to fly and work on the ISS this year including on the upcoming Expedition 67 and Expedition 68 missions. In fact, at this time, the next officially scheduled Canadian astronaut flight is in early 2024 on the NASA led Artemis II mission that will circle the Moon.
Recently, and unconfirmed, we’ve heard that Jeremy Hansen could be assigned to Expedition 69 (spring 2023) or Expedition 70. If that’s the case then either Joshua Kutryk or Jennifer Sidey-Gibbons would be on the Artemis II mission. Beyond these two missions, Canada has another seat on a future Artemis mission to the yet to be built Lunar Gateway and will likely have 1 or 2 more missions on the ISS. But what comes next?
The future space stations
It is very unlikely that Canada will build its own space station, and with its primary partner the U.S. supporting a public-private partnership model whereby the U.S. is supporting a private space station(s), what is Canada to do?
The U.S. has been moving towards supporting a Low Earth Orbit (LEO) commercial economy for some time. The next step already underway is supporting private space stations.
In January 2020 NASA announced it was supporting Axiom Space with US$140 million. Axiom would build a module to be attached to the ISS. However, when the ISS is decommissioned that module would be detached and moved and become the first node of Axiom’s commercial space station.
Then in early December 2021 NASA announced that three more groups of companies would also be funded to “develop commercial destinations in space.” They included:
- Blue Origin of Kent, Washington (US$130 million) – The Orbital Reef team with Boeing, Redwire and Sierra Space.
- Nanoracks LLC, of Houston (US$160 million) – With Voyager Space and Lockheed Martin for Starlab.
- Northrop Grumman Systems Corporation of Dulles, Virginia (US$125.6 million).
At this point I’ll also mention that China has its own space station and has invited other nations to participate. While theoretically this could be an option for Canada, it is very unlikely to happen in the current political climate. Russia is another country that could build another space station with its existing ISS modules by repurposing them but the Russian program is going through some very challenging times now, not the least of which is funding, so this seems even more unlikely an option for Canada. And Europe has yet to decide what to do next post ISS.
So where does that leave Canada? Quite simply, at the moment, Canada’s only realistic option is to become a customer or partner on one or more of the private space stations. But which one?
The good news is that Canada has time to make a decision. The initial funding for the four groups is through 2025. At that point NASA will downselect to one or two groups who will then build the actual hardware that fly.
The teams are already trying to line up partners and the Canadian Space Agency did meet with the Blue Origin Orbital Reef team at last years International Astronautical Congress. And it’s not just the CSA who are being courted in Canada. At that same meeting, an invited guest was MDA.
In making the announcement of the three additional teams this past December, NASA Administrator Bill Nelson said “building on our successful initiatives to partner with private industry to deliver cargo, and now our NASA astronauts, to the International Space Station, NASA is once again leading the way to commercialize space activities. With commercial companies now providing transportation to low-Earth orbit in place, we are partnering with U.S. companies to develop the space destinations where people can visit, live, and work, enabling NASA to continue forging a path in space for the benefit of humanity while fostering commercial activity in space.”
For the Canadian Space Agency, it seems following NASA’s lead is yet again the only game in town.