MDA Space raised its 2026 revenue forecast on Thursday after a better-than-expected third quarter that brought in $498 million, up 22 per cent from a year earlier.
MDA Space now expects revenue of $1.90 billion to $1.95 billion this year, up from $1.8 billion to $1.9 billion in August, or growth of roughly 18 per cent. The gain came from home: sales to Canadian customers rose 44 per cent, with Telesat’s Lightspeed constellation the main driver, while sales to U.S. customers fell 19 per cent.
The slowdown MDA expected hasn’t come
In August, MDA Space told investors to expect a softer second half. Its forecast then implied growth of only about 2 per cent over the last six months of the year, and chief financial officer Guillaume Lavoie tied it to work on Globalstar’s next-generation constellation moving from component deliveries into testing, as SpaceQ reported at the time.
Satellite Systems, MDA’s satellite-building unit, grew 26 per cent to $358 million, mainly on more Lightspeed work. The slowdown has not shown up yet.
Morgan Stanley analyst Justin Lang asked on the call what had changed. Lavoie said the plan had assumed less Globalstar work, but more activity in MDA’s supply chain let it count more revenue than expected. “It’s all about execution,” he said. In March the company forecast about 10 per cent growth for the year. It now expects about 18 per cent.
Robotics and space operations grew 2 per cent to $80 million on steady Canadarm3 work. Since August, MDA has signed a funded task authorization with the Canadian Space Agency (CSA) to plan robotics and operations for the lunar base Canadarm3 is being repurposed to serve. Geointelligence, which sells satellite data and analysis, grew 25 per cent to $60 million, helped by the Royal Canadian Navy’s ISTAR (intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition and reconnaissance) drone program.
Lightspeed makes up 35 per cent of MDA’s remaining work
Lavoie put Lightspeed’s remaining backlog, the work under contract but not yet delivered, at about $1.4 billion. That is about 35 per cent of the $3.95 billion MDA Space has left to deliver across the company. Lightspeed is also the largest contract in its history.
Telesat said last week that the first two Lightspeed satellites, the pathfinders MDA Space is still finishing, will launch no earlier than June 2027 rather than this December. Jefferies analyst Adam Samuelson asked what that means for MDA’s revenue.
Chief executive Mike Greenley said “there is no change to our financial forecasts for the business or for Telesat Lightspeed.” He expects the pathfinders to be finished before the new launch date. CIBC analyst Erin Kyle asked whether the delay holds up a large payment. No large payment is tied to the pathfinders, Lavoie said; Telesat pays in many small steps.
Growth at home, foreign acquisitions
Canadian customers supplied 73 per cent of revenue, up from 62 per cent a year earlier. Sales to Europe and Asia barely moved.
Greenley expects the two acquisitions MDA announced in June and July, Blue Canyon Technologies in the U.S. and a majority stake in CLS in France, to close between later this year and early 2027. Together they would have added almost $700 million of revenue this year, he said. Neither is in the forecast.
After the quarter ended, Thales Alenia Space signed an authorization to proceed, an agreement that lets work start before the final contract is settled, worth more than $100 million for MDA antennas on the 66 first-layer satellites of IRIS², the European Union’s planned sovereign constellation. Greenley called it “a really strategic entry point.”
Cash turns positive for the first time this year
MDA Space generated $106 million of cash from operations in the quarter and $62 million of free cash flow, the cash left after spending on equipment and facilities. It was the first positive quarter of free cash flow this year. Over nine months the figure is still negative $116 million, and Lavoie said the fourth quarter “could see a bit of consumption of cash.” The forecast for the year remains neutral to negative.
MDA Space ended September with net cash, cash in excess of its debt, of $1.3 billion after a $1.15-billion share sale in July and $600 million of bonds in August. Most of it is set aside for the two acquisitions.
MDA Space earned $30.9 million, up 14 per cent. Adjusted earnings per share, which leave out amortization from past acquisitions and some other costs, stayed at 37 cents. The diluted share count rose 25 per cent after the March New York listing and the July share sale.
MDA Space’s sales, general and administrative costs rose 41 per cent as it built out its corporate functions and paid acquisition costs. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) still rose 16 per cent to $96 million, but the margin slipped to 19.3 per cent from 20.2 per cent. Kyle asked about the lower fourth-quarter margin the forecast implies. Lavoie put it near 18 per cent and said the spending to scale up “is likely to also continue into 2027.”
Key metrics
| Financial metric (in millions of CAD) | Q3 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2025 | YoY change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $498.1 | $498.6 | $409.8 | +21.5% |
| — Satellite Systems | $358.3 | $336.1 | $283.5 | +26.4% |
| — Robotics & Space Operations | $79.9 | $99.5 | $78.3 | +2.0% |
| — Geointelligence | $59.9 | $63.0 | $48.0 | +24.8% |
| Gross profit | $125.9 | $125.9 | $108.0 | +16.6% |
| Gross margin | 25.3% | 25.3% | 26.4% | -1.1 pts |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $96.0 | $96.3 | $82.8 | +15.9% |
| Adjusted EBITDA margin | 19.3% | 19.3% | 20.2% | -0.9 pts |
| Net income | $30.9 | $27.9 | $27.0 | +14.4% |
| Adjusted net income | $60.4 | $51.8 | $47.9 | +26.1% |
| Adjusted diluted EPS | $0.37 | $0.36 | $0.37 | +0.7% |
| Order bookings | $444.2 | $808.9 | $174.2 | n/m |
| Backlog (period end) | $3,949.1 | $4,003.0 | $4,392.8 | -10.1% |
| Operating cash flow | $106.2 | $(93.4) | $32.8 | n/m |
| Free cash flow | $61.6 | $(150.2) | $(36.7) | n/m |
| Net cash (debt), period end | $1,328.0 | $152.8 | $(93.6) | n/m |
What to watch
MDA Space’s new range implies fourth-quarter revenue of $439 million to $489 million. Even the top is below the $499 million of a year ago — the company’s biggest quarter to date. Lavoie said that at the high end the fourth quarter would look “quite similar to the third quarter,” and that the $50-million spread leaves “a bit of wiggle room.”
MDA CHORUS, the company’s own Earth observation constellation, is due to launch before the end of the year. The nine remaining Globalstar replenishment satellites are to be delivered by then, and Blue Canyon should close. MDA will give its 2027 forecast in early March. Lavoie expects “double-digit growth on the current business,” before the acquisitions are counted. The Lightspeed pathfinders are due to launch no earlier than June.
MDA Space shares closed Wednesday at $36.66, about 45 per cent below their May 28 peak.