How many small launch vehicles are operational in the USA? If you said four you are correct. And did you know there are approximately 163 small launch vehicles being tracked in a leading survey.
Since 2015 Carlos Niederstasser been tracking the small launch vehicle segment. He first started the survey when he was working at Orbital Sciences Corporation. He’s now a Senior Staff Systems Architect at Northrop Grumman who acquired Orbital in 2017.
His latest update to the survey was presented at the recent International Astronautical Congress in Dubai.
As the table below illustrates only three countries have operational small launch vehicles. Two if you count the Rocket Lab Electron USA/New Zealand partnership as one entity. The other country is of course China. And most small satellites outside of China are still launched on rideshare missions by SpaceX with ISRO and Russia’s GK Launch Services in the mix.
To be included in the survey launch vehicles must meet the following criteria:
- Have a maximum capability to LEO of 1,000 kg (definition of LEO left to the LV provider).
- The effort must be for the development of an entire space launch vehicle system (with the exception of carrier aircraft for air launched vehicles).
- Some indication through a web site, social media, traditional media, conference paper, press release, etc. that the effort has been active in the past two years.
- No specific indication that the effort has been cancelled, closed, or otherwise disbanded.
- Have a stated goal of completing a fully operational space launch (orbital) vehicle. Funded concept or feasibility studies by government agencies, patents for new launch methods, etc., do not qualify, but have been included in the “Other Potential Players” section.
- The launch vehicle must be intended for the open, commercial market. (With the understanding that some countries are restricted with regards to what vehicles their space systems can launch on.)
- Sufficient detail (technical, financial, business) to imply work in progress.
With the above criteria in mind 110 vehicles are included in the survey of which 10 are operational, 49 under development and 51 on the survey’s watch list.
Three Canadian efforts are mentioned including C6 Launch Launch Systems in the “under development” table with SpaceRyde and Reaction Dynamics on the watch list. We’ll have an update on SpaceRyde next week. Reaction Dynamics may have some news soon but last we heard they had increased the cadence of engine testing to several times a month. As for C6, we’ll have an update on them in a couple of weeks. We will also be shortly publishing an update to our Canadian Spaceport Report.
The survey provided several conclusions, here’s an excerpt:
“The past six years have been an extremely dynamic period for the launch vehicle industry. Larger players have announced or introduced new rockets such as the Blue Origin New Glenn, the SpaceX BFR, the ULA Vulcan, the Arianespace Ariane 6, and the Northrop Grumman OmegA (subsequently canceled). But the real action has been in the extremely fast introduction of potential new vehicles in the sub-1000 kg to LEO class.”
“It is clear that the market will not be able to support most of these new entrants, but it is equally clear that both the founders and the capital markets think that there will be room for multiple players. We have seen some of the new entrants commence operations, and a number of other players are likely to have their first flight in the next few months.”
“To best illustrate this growth, Figure 5 summarizes the changes over the past four editions of this survey. The bar chart shows the total number of vehicles tracked in our survey and divides them into five categories:”
- Operational – The vehicle has conducted a successful first flight and more flights are planned.
- Active – The vehicle meets the criteria set out in this paper for inclusion
- Watch – The vehicle has the potential to meet the criteria for inclusion, but it is currently just a “paper study” or not enough information is publicly known.
- Unknown – The vehicle was either active or on the watch list in a previous survey but no updates have been seen in two or three years.
- Defunct – The vehicle development has been cancelled or the company developing it has disbanded.
- Total – The total number of efforts tracked, which has increased from a mere 31 in 2015 to 163 in 2021.
The survey also provides some information on vehicle technology, system performance, launch costs, and financial investment sources where available for those listed as under development.
The full survey is only available to those registered for the IAC. However, you could contact the author directly at Carlos.Niederstasser@ngc.com to request a copy.