The space industry, excluding Canada at this time, is building rockets bigger than anything seen since the Apollo era. A new report now questions if these giant vehicles will actually lower the cost of reaching orbit.
The Aerospace Corporation recently published an analysis of super heavy lift (SHL) launch vehicles. The aerospace sector defines an SHL as a rocket capable of lifting more than 50,000 kilograms to low-Earth orbit (LEO). Companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin are currently testing their own SHL rockets, Starship and New Glenn. These companies hope that flying larger, reusable vehicles will make spaceflight significantly more affordable.
The report compares this strategy to the shipping and commercial aviation industries. Ultra-large container ships successfully lowered the cost of moving ocean freight because they integrated perfectly into standardized global supply chains across land, rail, and sea. By contrast, the Airbus A380 jumbo jet struggled because its enormous size introduced unexpected operational complexities and costs. Point-to-point air travel replaced the hub-and-spoke model, leaving the giant planes with few profitable routes.
The space sector now faces a similar economic test. For new rockets to succeed financially, operators must fly them frequently and ensure their large cargo bays are packed full. Without full utilization, a partially loaded super heavy lift rocket could end up being more expensive than a smaller rocket flying at full capacity.
The authors emphasize that achieving this level of efficiency remains unproven. According to the report, “It is too early to tell if the SHL launch vehicle will result in a boom for an audacious space race or a bust for a space economy where existing and more agile rockets succeed”.
The authors conclude that if these oversized rockets prove financially viable, they might catalyze new markets that impact everyday life. To ensure their cargo holds stay full, rocket builders are relying heavily on the deployment of vast satellite internet networks. Amazon has already secured up to 27 launches on Blue Origin’s New Glenn for its internet constellation. Meanwhile, SpaceX has tied the future of Starship to an ambitious expansion of its space network. The company is planning a constellation of up to one million satellites to operate enormous orbital data centres.
One last note from the authors, they state that these computing networks could leverage intense solar energy in space, bypassing terrestrial grid limits. However, these applications remain highly speculative. The near-term survival of these giant rockets depends entirely on their ability to deploy thousands of commercial communications satellites at a competitive price.