The space sector has been taken by storm with the plethora of low Earth orbit (LEO) broadband constellations being planned. The most noteworthy is likely Starlink, but others such as OneWeb, Telesat Lightspeed, and Amazon’s Kuiper have been making rapid progress.
Meanwhile, halfway around the world, China has been building up its capabilities in small satellite manufacturing, batch launches, and satellite applications in anticipation of its own LEO broadband constellation(s). While the exact LEO plans of the powers that be in Beijing remain uncertain, we have seen a handful of hints and recent updates that can point us in the direction of momentum.
China’s LEO constellations: A primer
Probably the most important thing to consider when looking at LEO broadband constellations in the Chinese context is that LEO broadband constellations are effectively telcos from space. Given the degree of regulation in China in both the telco and space sector, this means that very likely, the country’s LEO broadband constellation will be developed by the state, rather than one of the several commercial Chinese companies aiming to launch constellations.
As with development of internet infrastructure, it is very likely that a State-owned Enterprise (SOE) will be the one building China’s digital infrastructure in space, and that commercial companies will be tasked with developing applications on top of that infrastructure. This has been evidenced in the extent to which several Chinese commercial satellite manufacturers (namely Commsat and Galaxy Space) have in recent years pivoted from planning their own constellation to building satellites for other constellations, or in the case of Galaxy Space, developing applications for LEO broadband (i.e. 5G, IoT uses).
In short, China’s major LEO broadband constellation is very likely to be built by the state. That being the case, what might it look like?
The national network
2021 has seen a handful of major updates related to China’s LEO broadband plans. In March, we saw China publish its 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025), which included ambitions for a global communications constellation. The 14th Five-Year Plan was published during the “Two Sessions,” an annual meeting of China’s Central Government, which often sees officials interviewed on the sidelines about their plans for the coming years.
This year we saw Bao Weimin, Director of Science & Technology Commission of China Aerospace Science and Technology (CASC), confirm the so-called “Guowang” project, understood to be China’s LEO broadband constellation. Guowang (国网, or “National Net(work)”), is a borderline mythical beast at this point, however bread crumbs including ITU filings from China with the prefix “GW” for constellations of >12k satellites. Moving forward, Guowang is likely to absorb the Hongyan and Hongyun broadband constellation projects of CASC and China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC), respectively, something that was also implied by ChinaSat earlier this year.
May 2021 saw even bigger news, with the creation of “China SatNet,” a state-owned enterprise directly controlled by SASAC (State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission), putting it at the same level as space behemoths CASC and CASIC, and the big three telcos. SatNet appears to be the operating company for Guowang, and by placing it at a very high level of hierarchy (roughly equal in status to CASC/CASIC/others), the Central Government has given SatNet considerable power over decisions. For example, if the country’s LEO broadband constellation were a CASC subsidiary (like Hongyan), it would likely favour CASC’s rockets, satellites, etc. By putting SatNet at the same level as CASC, it seems that SatNet will be able to source based on merit, picking and choosing suppliers from China’s plethora of commercial launchers, satellite manufacturers, and other companies, as well as from the major SOEs.
What about all those commercial manufacturers
If China is planning to consolidate its LEO broadband constellation plans under Guowang, this could beg the question — what about the commercial companies?
It’s not entirely clear, but most likely, China’s commercial satellite manufacturers will have a role to play in the deployment of Guowang. It’s easy to underestimate how much of an industrial base is needed to build hundreds of satellites per year, especially when Starlink makes it look relatively easy. Today, China’s main space SOEs, CASC and CASIC, have capabilities of producing some dozens to perhaps ~100 satellites per year, with this being a recent development. CASIC recently completed a satellite factory in Wuhan, for instance, that aims for an eventual capacity of 240 satellites per year.
As such, the variety of commercial companies that have developed satellite manufacturing, launch, or other capabilities, are likely to be called on to help furnish this constellation. Commsat, Galaxy Space, GeeSpace, and others are building or have built satellite factories. Landspace, iSpace, Galactic Energy, and others aim to produce dozens of rockets per year by mid-decade, with some of these claims being plausible.
Overall, the future of China’s LEO broadband constellations remains far from certain. That said, several attributes seem likely: 1) China’s main LEO broadband constellation will be operated by the state, 2) commercial companies will play some role in the buildout of this constellation, and 3) given the political importance assigned to this project, it seems quite likely that somehow, some way, sometime, we will see a LEO broadband constellation from China.