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The U.S. Center for Strategic and International Studies has released the seventh edition of Space Threat Assessment, an annual report that provides an update on current threats and looks at ongoing trends.
The report provides an overview of current counterspace capabilities, feature sections on China, Russia, India, Iran and North Korea, featured analysis on Normalization of Deviance as well as Coalitions of Convenience. It also features very short reports on Australia, France, Israel, Japan, South Korea, United Kingdom and Non-state Actors. There is no mention of Canada. Lastly, it outlines What to Watch For and this years Conclusions.
The report provides a relative succinct introduction and overview of the current state of space threats.
Introduction
What follows is an excerpt from the reports introduction.
Today, there are more satellites and systems in space providing services, information, and capabilities to people on Earth than ever before.1 While many of these systems have a civilian mission and are built and run by companies instead of governments, they also support U.S. national security. As noted in past assessments, these civilian and commercial space systems face expanding threats from foreign adversaries, which increasingly include cyber and espionage threats.
Given the criticality of services and capabilities provided by space systems to U.S. national and economic security, the authors believe that policymakers should think in terms of threats and risk as they resource and prioritize miti- gation measures. In addition to threats, a risk assessment includes analysis of vulnerabilities as well as the likelihood of and impacts from undesired events.
Continuing past trends, 2023 saw foreign nations reach new milestones in space: record-setting launches, deployments of satellites, and missions to the Moon and other parts of the solar system.3 While not strictly advancing in counterspace weapons, foreign countries have shown progress in building and expanding the foundational capabilities needed to support both space and counterspace systems. China broke its national record for launches in one year and, for the third time, sent its reusable spaceplane into orbit.4 North Korea successfully launched a satellite into space, while Iran placed its third surveillance satellite into orbit.5 Over the last year, both India and Japan landed missions on the Moon.6 In February 2024, the world learned that Russia is developing a space- based counterspace weapon involving nuclear technology, bringing more public awareness and policymaker attention to space security.
Conclusions
The conclusions focus on two areas, direct-ascent anti-satellite (DA-ASAT) and GNSS jamming.
On DA-ASAT they state in part, “There has not been a DA ASAT test since 2021, but countries are still considering how to deny their adversaries the use of space. It also does not mean that threats to space sys- tems are decreasing. This past year, revelations that Russia is seeking to develop a nuclear space-based ASAT capability focused more attention on space security issues.”
On GNSS jamming they state in part, “More and more nation-states and threat actors are regularly conducting GNSS jamming and spoofing as defensive measures to protect against missile and air strikes.”
