Canadian space services company MDA Space has had a busy-but-largely-successful year. That success has now been officially recognized by the Toronto Stock Exchange, which announced that MDA Space is now one of the “TSX30.”
The “TSX30” are the 30 top-performing companies on the Toronto Stock Exchange. The placement is based on the companies’ “divided-adjusted share price performance” over a three year period. It is based on how much the price of their stock has gone up over that three-year period, with small adjustments for the temporary drops in stock price that come with the issuance of dividends and stock consolidations, where appropriate.
To qualify, the companies need to have had a closing share price of at least $0.50 as of June 30, 2022, and have had a minimum market capitalization of $75 million on the same date. The TSX also said that the data is “current as of June 30th, 2025,” so it may not reflect stock price changes that occurred over the period between then and the announcement.
MDA came in at #15 on the TSX30 list, right in the middle of the pack. The TSX pointed to a 340% increase in share price over those three years in support of the placement.
Markets seeking stability
According to Bloomberg, the company was somewhat of an outlier. Though technology companies delivered the largest average share price increase, “coming in at 620 per cent over a three-year period,” the list was overall dominated by mining companies, with a particular focus on gold. 17 of the 30 companies were mining-related, and 15 were related to gold in particular.
Loui Anastasopoulos, chief executive of the Toronto Stock Exchange, said that that heavy mining representation was partially due to the rising cost of gold bullion, but also a reflection of how “Canadian markets are rewarding companies that really delivered certainty in very uncertain times.” Investors in Canadian firms, according to Anastasopoulos, are displaying a preference for stability and value.
It’s interesting, then, that a space company like MDA Space has performed so well within that kind of environment. But perhaps not that surprising; MDA Space has a $4.6 billion dollar backlog, including a variety of private-sector and government customers: including the Canadian Space Agency, the Department of National Defence, Telesat, and Globalstar among many others.
MDA’s 2024 earnings call in March of this year featured CEO Mike Greenley pointing to both the “solid backlog” and a “robust opportunity funnel,” as well as a rise in both revenues and EBITDA margin. That backlog and funnel, especially with the strong presence of government customers, may present exactly the kind of stability that investors are looking for.
In response to MDA’s placement on the TSX30 list, Greenley said that “we are honoured to be recognized as one of the TSX30 companies for 2025,” and that it “reflects the hard work and dedication of our teams, the trust of our customers, and the ongoing support of our investors.” He added that they “remain committed to driving sustainable growth and creating value for all stakeholders.”
Post-EchoStar stock situation
However, there is a definite issue when talking about MDA’s stock price performance: the cancellation of the EchoStar contract.
The $1.8 billion EchoStar contract had doubtlessly helped to contribute to their strong position going into September. But with the cancellation of that contract, after EchoStar’s conflict with the FCC prompted it to sell its AWS-4 and H-block spectrum to SpaceX, the share price for MDA dropped 24.34%.
Greenley said that the EchoStar cancellation was a “very unexpected event…a highly, highly unusual situation.”
In the wake of that unusual situation, the price at time of publication is now down to $30.80 from its mid-August peak of $46.36. That also comes in lower than the price as of the TSX30’s June 30th cutoff date, $35.11, though it is still dramatically higher when compared to its August 2022 price of $8.98 a share.
Even so, analysts don’t believe that this reflects any long-term issues with MDA Space itself, which they still regard as a stable investment target. Instead, they see it more as a potential short-term buying opportunity.
Desjardins Securities analyst Benoit Poirier was quoted in the Globe and Mail as saying that this situation did not reflect on MDA Space’s performance or as “a signal of reduced global competitiveness.” Instead, Poirier believes that the EchoStar situation “appears politically driven, with EchoStar now being viewed as a public proxy for SpaceX.”
Poirier said that “we see [Monday’s] pullback as a compelling entry point, with long-term industry tailwinds intact.” He also said that MDA Space is still “actively quoting with prospective customers,” that MDA will be fully compensated for all costs, fees, and liabilities incurred to date, and that “the EchoStar work has not gone to waste” as it “helped MDA accelerate development of a 5G-compliant satellite design that enhances its original Aurora D2D offering.”
Poirier’s current target for MDA shares is $43, down from the previous target of $56 a share, but still well above the current price of $30.80.
The Globe also quotes RBC Capital Markets Ken Herbert saying “we continue to believe that MDA is well-positioned to convert some of its $13-billion pipeline…and we continue to view MDA as a core holding for space exposure.” Herbert set a target of $45 with an “outperform” rating.
If these analysts’ predictions bear out, there’s every reason to believe that MDA Space’s stock price will recover to at least the price that it had when it was placed on the TSX30, especially as that price is closer to the current value than to the August peak.
While there has been a temporary setback, MDA Space’s inclusion in the TSX’s top-growing stock list still appears well-justified, as the company recovers and moves on from the EchoStar situation.