The arrival of a new year is a natural time for predictions, and the space industry is no exception to this rule. Here is what the experts think will occur in 2025, what the biggest opportunities will be, and the ‘biggest things’ they would like to see happen in this time period.
What’s to Come
MDA Space CEO Mike Greenley expects the space economy to grow in 2025, with two major standouts. First, “NASA will continue its ongoing adoption of a commercial space model by selecting winners for the next phase of the Commercial LEO Destination program and enabling the market for commercial space stations.
In addition to selecting a winner for the Lunar Terrain Vehicle Services rover program that will see NASA become a customer in this new commercial services economy,” he said Second, “SpaceX’s continuing progress in maturing its Starship rocket will further drive down launch costs for trips to the Moon and beyond.”
Given that Maritime Launch Services is developing Canada’s first commercial orbital launch facility — Spaceport Nova Scotia — near Canso, Nova Scotia, it makes sense that company President and CEO Stephen Matier is focussed on its future prospects. To this end, “We expect that Canada is going to see major advancements in the development of Spaceport Nova Scotia, both in terms of a suborbital launch campaign in collaboration with Reaction Dynamics and with the construction activities at the spaceport in anticipation of orbital launches in 2026,” said Matier.
As well, “Maritime Launch expects to see our government capitalize on the completed treaty negotiations with the US government and complete the ratification of the Technology Assistance Agreement in Parliament. This is a vital advancement for the sector in that it opens up the massive space economy in the US to be launched from Canadian soil, a first ever in history.”
Brian Gallant is CEO of Space Canada, the Canadian space industry association. After observing that “geopolitical tensions are manifesting in space in a significant way,” Gallant noted that the industry is “excited for the Government of Canada to create its National Space Council – a commitment it made in its 2024 Budget. Once stood up, it will help Canada bring a holistic approach to advancing Canada’s space ambitions while allowing agility. It will also facilitate Canada’s ability to collaborate with the US and other allies on space.”
As for President-elect Trump’s impact on the space industry? “The first Trump Administration was keen on space,” replied Gallant. “It bears repeating that he created the United States Space Force as its own branch of the military during his first term. With some of the public figures in the President-elect’s orbit, the second Trump Administration may indeed push bold space policies and investments.”
Michael Mulley is an Account Executive on Planet Labs’ Defence & Intelligence team. (Planet is a provider of global, daily satellite imagery and geospatial solutions.) “Canadian and global space industries will see many significant milestones in 2025,” he said. “Although it has been pushed out to 2026, I think it’s worth mentioning that Canadian astronaut Jeremy Hansen is scheduled to participate in the Artemis II mission and become the first Canadian to fly around the Moon. Also, Canada is providing the Canadarm3 for NASA’s Artemis Lunar Gateway. In addition, Canada is making progress towards its first lunar rover mission that will explore the lunar south pole and search for water ice.”
With respect to Mulley’s own company, Planet’s latest AI-powered satellite, Pelican-2, is currently at Vandenberg Space Force Base being prepared for an early 2025 launch. “This Pelican satellite is designed to provide up to 40 cm class resolution imagery across six multispectral bands optimized for cross-sensor analysis,” said Mulley. “Additionally, Planet has collaborated with NVIDIA to equip Pelican-2 with the NVIDIA Jetson platform for edge AI and robotics to power on-orbit computing — with the aim of vastly reducing the time between data capture and its availability for customers.”
Also in 2025, Planet will continue to roll out critical data from its first hyperspectral satellite, Tanager-1. “Following the launch this past fall, we released first light images in just a few weeks, and our partners at Carbon Mapper have already shared its first emissions mitigation success story,” Mulley said. “This hyperspectral data can be useful for a variety of use cases including defense and intelligence monitoring, biodiversity assessments, mineral mapping, and water quality assessments.”
Opportunities, Trends, and Challenges
What will the big opportunities, trends, and challenges be for the space industry in 2025? The experts varied in their answers to this question.
“The biggest opportunity for MDA Space — and Canada more generally — in 2025 will be the opportunity to leverage space for enhanced international collaboration and partnership,” said Greenley. He expects this opportunity to be driven by international pressure on Canada to spend more on defence, including space; “a new administration in the US, which many expect will further intensify the space race between the US and China”; and increased investment/mergers and acquisitions activity in the space sector.
At Maritime Launch Services, “we foresee a realignment in the global launch market taking shape in 2025,” Matier said. “Launch demand will continue to grow, while launch supply, mostly out of the US will remain flat. Some launch sites with limitations due to logistics, launch inclinations, weather constraints, bureaucracies and cost will struggle or even fold, while others with the attributes that Spaceport Nova Scotia boasts will excel.”
Brian Gallant expects 2025 to be a great year for the commercial space industry worldwide. The reason? “Through enhanced investments and new programs, many countries are pushing to encourage commercialization by only building what can’t be bought from commercial partners in order to strengthen their respective industrial bases,” he said. In particular, “the trend toward greater dual-use and dual-purpose application is clear, and we expect significant opportunities for Canada’s space innovators to contribute to Canada’s defence and security, and with our partners and allies.” At the same time, “this newfound level of competition for the spoils of the growing global space sector represents a challenge for Canada,” said Gallant.
“The space industry is set to experience significant growth in 2025, driven by innovation and increasing investment,” Mulley agreed. “Some of the opportunities include the mega LEO constellations revolutionizing connectivity in underserved and remote areas, the growth of space tourism, the increased interest in lunar exploration, the focus of space in Defence and National Security, and the rapid growth of Earth Observation.”
Mulley expects 2025’s space industry trends to include AI revolution, new space sustainability solutions, and policy changes by governments. However, “the space sector will also face a number of challenges in 2025,” he said. “These include shifting policy priorities and a more crowded competitor landscape.”
What They’re Wishing For in 2025
To add some fun to this New Year’s predictions article, SpaceQ asked the experts about the biggest things they’d like to see happen in 2025.
“In 2025 we see a growing opportunity to leverage space for enhanced international collaboration and partnership,” said Greenley. He expects this to be driven by international pressure on Canada to spend more on defence, including space. He also thinks “a new administration in the US will further intensify the focus on space,” and that we will also see increased investment activity in the space sector.
NASA recently released an update to its Moon and Mars architecture plan.
“I hope the biggest thing that will happen in space in 2025 is global climate action powered by Earth Observation (EO) satellites,” Michael Mulley said. “EO satellites are critical in understanding and addressing climate change. This includes monitoring greenhouse gases, tracking deforestation, showing the rate of ice melting and monitoring habitats and ecosystems.” For the record, “Planet’s new hyperspectral satellite Tanager will provide comprehensive, accurate, and timely measurement of methane, carbon dioxide, and more than 25 other environmental indicators that are needed to closely monitor the health of the planet.”
Stephen Matier didn’t reveal his ‘biggest thing for 2025’, but he did outline what he is looking forward to. “We see the expansion of human spaceflight taking shape in 2025 with new entrants such as Dream Chaser, New Glenn and Firefly Alpha making their market debuts and the development of the new space stations taking shape for deployment,” said Matier. “The commercial space market is hitting its stride and new players are beginning to emerge. We count Spaceport Nova Scotia as one of those new entrants that is offering the industry what it needs to reach its potential.”
As for Brian Gallant? In 2025, “Space Canada will advocate and encourage the Canadian Government to create its own space commercialization policies in order to keep up with other countries’ initiatives,” he said. “Adopting this approach becomes even more crucial as NATO allies look to increase their respective defence budgets to meet the agreed-upon NATO targets on defence spending over the coming years. Space-related defence capabilities are going to be more important moving forward, including in Canada given the need to bolster our presence in the Arctic.” One thing appears certain: 2025 is going to be an exciting year for the space industry in Canada and around the world. SpaceQ will be here to bring you the news of humanity’s space accomplishments as they occur over the next 12 months.
Note: The article was updated on Dec. 24 with an update to the quote from Mike Greenley in the Opportunities, Trends, and Challenges section.