Trump and the Artemis Program Dilemma

At President Trump’s inauguration speech both Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos were near the President when he said “we will pursue our manifest destiny into the stars, launching American astronauts to plant the Stars and Stripes on the planet Mars.” It was music to at least Musk, but it means another billionaire, Jared Isaacman who was officially nominated to lead NASA Monday, faces a dilemma with the Artemis program. One that would have consequences in Canada.

Musk reportedly spent $250M to help Trump get elected and now humans to Mars, part of Musk’s primary goal of making humans a multi-planetary species, is seemingly closer to reality with an expansionist President supporting it fully.

Adding to the voices of concern was Michael Byers who opined in the Globe and Mail under the title “Is Canada lost in space?” He states, “For Mr. Musk, the moon is a distraction on the path to Mars. For decades, he’s been focused on the goal of establishing a human presence there.” And continues “So, after a quick trip to the moon for geopolitical glory, it’s full speed ahead to the Red Planet.”

This could be the outcome, but it’s not the likely outcome.

NASA, the U.S., have set a path that will eventually get to Mars but technology limitations and funding would suggest that the moon should be the first destination. Humanity’s return to the moon is not about flags and footprints. No, this is about attempting to innovate to the point where humans can work on the moon as the basis to going beyond the Earth moon planetary system. Mars is our closest neighbour, yet still far, far, away.

For geopolitical reasons, the U.S. will not abandon their current path. Certainly, it will get modified. But although Musk dreams of Mars, financial reality suggests the moon must continue to be a part of SpaceX’s path. Starship’s development is subsidized by the government. It’s destination in the short term will be the moon. The government as a customer means the customer picks the destination. And let’s not forget Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin. He doesn’t see Mars the same way Musk does. And his company is committed to building technology to service customers going to the moon, including NASA.

For Jared Isaacman, who should be confirmed relatively soon, he faces the daunting task of working with a NASA budget that’s not likely to increase. He’s going to have to make some tough decisions. Money within NASA’s budget is going to move around. The NASA funded Space Launch System (SLS) seems to be on the chopping block. It just costs far too much money to build and launch one rocket. Certainly it’s been a jobs program. But a Trump administration can’t ignore that private companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin can do what SLS does at a fraction of the cost.

The Lunar Gateway Question

In a recent webinar by SpaceNews that I produced called Trump 2.0 – How Will the Space Sector Change?, the panel included Lori Garver, former NASA Deputy Administrator, and Courtney Stadd, Executive Vice President, Beyond Earth Institute, who both served on presidential NASA transitions teams, one Democrat (Garver) and the other Republican (Stadd), along with legal expert Michelle Hanlon, Executive Director, Center for Air and Space Law, University of Mississippi.

It was an excellent conversation and all the panelists agreed change was coming to NASA and the Artemis program, though to what degree was in question. All agreed Isaacman will face some tough decisions. Something has to give to balance the wants of Musk and the reality of the Artemis program.

Trump being Trump, will want to see Americans on the moon. After all, he’s the one who announced the goal on December 11, 2017. And he’ll also want to have the path for Americans on Mars defined. Trump won’t see Americans on Mars during his tenure. That is unless changes the law so he can run for another term. Even then, Mars could still be several years away.

For Isaacman, ending SLS is an easy decision. But the Artemis program could see more changes.

Yesterday Finland became the 53rd nation to sign the Artemis Accords. That so many countries are onboard with this American initiative means something. They now make up a majority of the members of the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space. Even Trump can’t ignore that. Meaning, even as the mantra is America first, it’s also America leading. And Isaacman will want, need, to keep the Artemis program partners onboard, all of who are signatories to the Accords.

But the panelist on the webinar did come up with another aspect of the Artemis program that could have a rocky future. The Lunar Gateway. To save costs, NASA might opt to go direct to the Moon and postpone or even opt-out on the Lunar Gateway. That would change the Artemis program architecture which was recently updated. It would also affect the Gateway partners, including Canada.

It’s early days in the Trump 2.0 administration, but one thing is abundantly clear, change is coming to the Artemis program. I suspect it won’t be long after Isaacman is confirmed that we have a better understanding of what will change.

For Canada, as with the issue of tariffs, it’s best to be prepared with options. Though what those options are might not be decided for some time, as Canada will have a federal election this year. But that is a conversation for another article.