There are over 4100 active satellites in orbit at the moment and the 7th edition of the Euroconsult “Prospects for the Small Satellite Market” is forecasting nearly 14,000 small satellites will be added by 2030.
The report which forecasts the growth “in the global supply and demand of government, commercial and academic satellites” includes satellites weighing up to 500 kg. The full report will cost you €5,000, however you can download for free a free extract.
The report states that “the main driver for this continued growth during a time where many face pandemic-related challenges is plans for satcom broadband ‘mega-constellations’ and the continuous necessity for replenishment launches. Of all smallsats to be launched, 84% are expected to be part of constellations. Furthermore, the smallsat manufacturing and launch market are set to do more than triple over the next decade, to $35 billion and $19 billion respectively, driven by the multiplication of constellation projects from both commercial and government stakeholders.”
It comes as no surprise that mega-constellations are the main driver. What is interesting is the number of small satellites that aren’t part of the mega-constellations that are projected to launch. Over the course of the next 10 years that number is forecast to be around 2,200, or about 200 per year.
Not surprisingly, Telecom dominates the projection with 8,497 satellites (61%), followed by Earth Observation at 1,812 (13%) and technology at 1,688 (12%).
Euroconsult said the report “has been updated to reflect the significant growth and developments of the Chinese constellations, with input from Chinese-speaking stakeholders.”
Also of note, their previous 2020 report had projected 10,100 satellites in the following decade. The new report projects a 38% increase from that report.
Euroconsult says the mega-constellations have been resilient to the COVID-19 pandemic. “Growth occurs despite the COVID-19 situation. Its negative effects were overestimated in the past edition as the availability of large amounts of capital throughout the pandemic was not anticipated (e.g. SPAC trend). OneWeb’s re-inclusion to our forecasts following its Chapter 11, subsequent acquisition and on-going revival illustrates this situation.”
A beneficiary of the explosive growth in the small satellite market will be the launch companies. “The smallsat launch market which was valued at $5.4 billion is set to grow by +253% to US$19.1 billion.”
The smallsat industry market value forecast between 2011-2020 was US$16.9 billion of which manufacturing accounted for US$11.5 billion and launch accounted for US$5.4 billion. For the decade between 2021-2030 Euroconsult forecasts the smallsat industry market value at US$54.2 billion of which manufacturing accounts for US$35.1 billion and launch US$19.1 billion.